MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A CASE STUDY OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES (1986-2014)

107 PAGES (117554 WORDS) Economics Project



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">ABSTRACT



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">              This study contributed to the debate on the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in less-developed economies by investigating the trend; causal relationship and the effect of military expenditure on economic growth in five selected sub-Sahara African Countries namely:- Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria and South-Africa; for the period 1986 to 2014. 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">              The study employed the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) using time series data to analyze the effect of military expenditure on economic growth. Granger causality test was used to analyze causal relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. Also, descriptive analysis; graphs was used to analyze the trend pattern in military expenditure in each country. 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">              The findings of the study indicated that military spending has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth (t = -4.30, p < 0.05). Furthermore, the study revealed uni-directional causality which runs from military expenditure to economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries (x2=0.0279, p < 0.05). The study also revealed an upward trend in military expenditure in the five selected countries. A long –run relationship among the variables is also revealed  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">              The study concludes that military expenditure is growth retarding in the region. The negative relationship between military expenditure and economic growth implies that the policy makers need to have a greater focus on development spending as compared to military spending.  



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justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">TABLE OF CONTENTS



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">                                                                                                                                            Pages 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Title                                                                                                                                         i 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Authorization to copy                                                                                                             ii



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Certification                                                                                                                            iii 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Dedication                                                                                                                               iv 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Acknowledgements                                                                                                                 v 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table of Contents                                                                                                                    vii 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">List of Tables                                                                                                                           x 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">List of Figures                                                                                                                          xi



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Abstract                                                                                                                                    xii



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1. INTRODUCTION 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.1 Background to the Study                                                                                                   1 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.2 Statement of the Problem                                                                                                  4 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.3 Research Questions                                                                                                           6 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.4 Objectives of the Study                                                                                                     7 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.5 Justification for the Study                                                                                                  7 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">1.6 Scope of the Study                                                                                                             8 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">2. LITERATURE REVIEW 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">2.1  Review of Theoretical Literature                                                                                       9 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">2.2 Review of Empirical Literature                                                                                          21 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">                                                                                        



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">3. METHODOLOGY 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">3.1 Theoretical Framework                                                                                                       27



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">3.2 Model Specification                                                                                                            29 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">3.3 Source of Data and Measurement of Variables                                                                  34



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">3.4.Techniques of data analysis                                                                                                35 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4. DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.1.1 Descriptive Statistics of the Data                                                                                      37  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.1.2 Panel Unit Root Test                                                                                                         40 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.1.3 Lag length selection criteria                                                                                              44 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.1.4 Panel Co-integration Test                                                                                                  46 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2 Trend and pattern of Military Expenditure in selected Sub-Sahara African countries        49



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.1 Pooled Trend  of Military Expenditure in selected Sub-Sahara African countries           49



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.2 Trend of Military Expenditure in Angola                                                                          53 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.3 Trend of Military Expenditure in Cameroon                                                                     56 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.4 Trend of Military Expenditure in Kenya                                                                           59 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.5 Trend of Military Expenditure in  Nigeria                                                                         62 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.2.6  Trend of Military Expenditure in South Africa                                                                65



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.3 Direction of causal relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries                                                                                    68 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">4.4 Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in the Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries                                                                                                          73                                                                                                                 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">5. SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">5.1 Summary                                                                                                                                77 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">5.2 Conclusion                                                                                                                             79



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">5.3  Recommendations                                                                                                                 79  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">5.4 Contribution to Knowledge and Suggestions for further Research                                       80   



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Appendices                                                                                                                                   82  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">References                                                                                                                                    87 



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justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">LIST OF TABLES



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics of variables in Logarithm form                                               42 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.2: Panel Unit Root (with individual intercept)                                                               45



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.3:  Panel Unit Root (with individual intercept and trend)                                              46 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.4: Lag length selection criterion                                                                                     48  



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.5: Panel Co-integration Test                                                                                           50 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.6: Individual Cross Section Results                                                                                51 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.7: VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests                                             67 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.8: Variance Decomposition                                                                                             70



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.9: Hausman Test                                                                                                              74



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Table 4.10: Fixed random effect of military expenditure on economic growth in the selected sub-Saharan African Countries                                                                                                           74



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justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">LIST OF FIGURES



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.1: Trend of Military Expenditure in Sub-Saharan African Countries                            54 



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.2: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in Sub-Saharan African                                  55



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.3: Trend of Military Expenditure in Angola                                                                   57



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.4: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in Angola                                                        57



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.5: Trend of Military Expenditure in Cameroon                                                              59



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.6: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in Cameroon                                                   59



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.7: Trend of Military Expenditure in Kenya                                                                    61



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.8: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in Kenya                                                         61



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.9: Trend of Military Expenditure in Nigeria                                                                   63



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.10: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in Nigeria                                                      63



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.11: Trend of Military Expenditure in South Africa                                                        65



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.12: Growth Rate of Military Expenditure in South Africa                                             65



justify;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:none;text-autospace:none">Figure 4.13: Impulse Response Graph